Poker Wisdom

I watch a lot of poker on tv.
One thing i've noticed a lot lately
(new shows and old WSOP's too)
is a 'mistake' guys are making in
tournaments. It has to do with
the size of their pre-flop raise.

Playa ZZ bets and Playa EX goes
over the top for all of Playa ZZ's chips.
Playa ZZ goes into the tank, takes 2-3
minutes to decide because he's totally
frazzled and unsure what to do.

Lets say its a satelite tournament
with 100/200 blinds.

Playa ZZ with 2400 chips,
has Ah/Js and bets 700.

Playa EX reraises putting ZZ all in.

There's 3400 in the pot and its
1700 more for ZZ to call
getting 2-1 on his money.
He needs to win [1/3] one third
of the time to make calling profitable.

If he thinks that EX is a loose
reraiser then its an easy call.

If he thinks that EX is a tight
reraiser then its an easy fold.

But if its 50/50 even money,
then i think that ZZ made a mistake
in the size of his preflop raise.

Almost all the hands that would
reraise ZZ, are a favourite over
Ace-Jack offsuit.

If EX has Pocket Aces,
he's a huge favourite.

If he has pocket 66,
then he's a slight favourite.

If ZZ moved all in
(instead of raise to 700),
EX would usually fold hands
like 66 or suited Aces.
The All-in raise would cause EX
to consider what hands would raise
all in with, and realize that many
of them have him beat.
If EX calls the all-in, he's only getting
odds of 2700-to-2400 (9:8),
so he'll have to win 8 of 17 times
(47%) to be profitable.

Sometimes when ZZ moves all-in,
EX will have a hand like AA or KK
and be a big underdog. But in the
above scenario, ZZ was about even
to call EX's reraise anyways,
he's going to run into these big hands
at the same frequency.

Since ZZ's all-in move will often
pick up the blinds, it turns the situation
against pocket 66 from a small loss situation
into a small profit one, every time opponent
EX has a marginal reraising hand.

Something to think about and watch for on tv