To Bluff or Not to Bluff

by Scott Paterson


The following are some factors to consider
when deciding whether to bluff or not:

Number of opponents
This one is a no brainer. A bluff is far more likely to succeed
against a single opponent. Your goal is to make your opponent(s)
fold. As the number of opponents increases the chances of
getting a caller increases.

Type of opponent(s)
Consider the type of player(s) you are trying to bluff.
Tight players usually will not call your bluff unless they
have a reasonable hand (your bluff forces tight players
to have a hand in order to call). Strong players can
lay down a hand if they think they’re beat (strong players
are able to at least consider the possibility that your hand
may be superior to theirs). Try to avoid bluffing loose or weak
players because you’ll get called more often than not.

Your table image
If other people at the table see you playing an inordinate number
of hands, showing down weak hands, betting at every flop,
or raising/reraising frequently they’re more apt to call your bluff.
They know that if you’re playing too many hands you must be
playing some weak hands, and if you’re betting too often you
cannot possibly have something every time you bet.
Tighter players have more license to bluff because they play
relatively few hands, and are therefore often given credit for
stronger hands.

Your "Reading" skills
The better your reading skills are the more opportunities
you will have to bluff. If a tighter player flat calls before you,
and the flop is 4c 8h 2d you can attempt a steal. They probably
have unpaired overcards. They can’t have an overpair to
the board because they likely would have raised preflop.
They haven’t made a set from paired hole cards because
they checked their hole cards after the flop (a player who flops
a set from paired hole cards doesn’t usually need to check
and see if they’ve done so). They don’t have two pair because
they aren’t likely playing 48, 42, or 82. There is no flush draw.
This player is fairly tight. He may have A8 suited or A4 suited
and has top/middle pair. He may also have A5 suited and has
an inside straight draw. Unpaired overcards are most likely,
and you should take a stab at this pot. If he raises you some
additional thought may be necessary. Reads will rarely be
this simple, but learning to read hands will pay off in the long run.

The size of the pot
It’s much easier to steal small and medium sized pots
than it is large pots. Players are usually more heavily invested
in large pots, and large pots are simply more attractive and
psychologically harder to let go of.