8/15/2007

*FUNDAMENTALS: Calculating OUTS

OUTS are cards that can come that
will improve your hand, and make it
a winning hand.

Calculating outs in not a perfect science.

In poker, we're always dealing with
incomplete information.

If your opponent is trying to trap you

with a monster hand, what you think
are your outs, are really cards that might
cost you your entire chip stack.

On the other hand, if your opponent

is bluffing, what you think are outs
may be be cards that improve your
hand which is already the best hand
and doesnt need improving.

Having said that, it is still very valuable

to know what cards and how many cards
can come that will improve your hand.


Here are some common situations
and the number of outs you have:

Two Over Cards needing to make

a Pair - 6 Outs

Open-Ended Straight Draw - 8 Outs

Flush Draw -9 Outs

Flush Draw + a Pair (improve to trips)

- 11 Outs



Here's a quick formula using your OUTS
to determine your ODDS. (Rule of 2 and 4)

With the Turn and River to come....
Count your outs, multiply them by 4,

and that's roughly the percentage shot
you have of hitting it.

With just the River to come....
Count your outs, multiply them by 2

to get the percentage.

Example: I have AJ of Hearts and

the Flop comes with two Hearts.
13 hearts in the deck minus 2 hearts

on board and 2 hearts in my hand
leaves 9 available hearts.... NINE OUTS.
9 x 4 = 36 ....I have a roughly 36%

or 1 in 3 chance of making my Flush
by the River.





1 comment:

Anonymous said...

The 4 part of the rule of 2 & 4 applies only if you must call an all in bet after the flop. If you have a four flush postflop and you must calculate your hand odds to call a bet you should multiply by 2, and then by another 2 if a bet is put to you after the turn. Otherwise when you're comparing your hand odds with your pot odds you will have calculated incorrectly.

to call a bet after the flop: X2
to call a bet after the turn: X2
to call an all in bet after the flop: X4