TOURNAMENT SKILLS: "M"

Possibly the most important piece
of information (specific to tournament
poker) that you can have is knowing the
relative value of the chips in your stack.

As the blinds increase, the ratio of your
chip stack to the level of blinds and antes
goes down.

This ratio is referred to as your M
(coined by poker and backgammon
wizard Paul Magriel) and is a crucial
factor in how you play, especially
towards the end of a tournament.

Calculating your M is simple.
Figure out the cost of one orbit
around the table.

(Blinds 100/200 - Cost = 300)

Divide your chip stack by
the cost of one orbit.

(Stack=3000 divided by 300 = 10,
your M is 10)

Your math doesnt need to be exact.
I know its not easy for me to calculate
in my head 4675 divided by 800, but i know
its roughly 6, and thats close enough.

What this tells you is the number of
times around the table you can survive
(assuming you dont play a hand) before
you are blinded out.

When your M is large, you can play any
game you choose, tight, loose, crazy.
When your M is low, you have few options.
You need to get chips or you'll be out of
the tournament.

There are times during a tournament
where you have to make a move.
You're falling behind and you have to
get more chips or risk being blinded away.
These are referred to as Inflection Points.
If i recall right from high school science
class, an inflection point is a spot on a
graph where it changes direction,
either up or down. During a tournament,
there comes a time when our chip stack
is either going to go up or go down
because we need to make a move to
aquire chips to keep our stack healthy.

So at what M are you safe and what M
are you in danger and how can we use
this to keep the blinds and antes from
eating us alive ?

Dan Harrington in Harrington on Holdem II
recommends using a zone system to gauge
where you are and when to make a move
based on your M. ("the Pot" refers to total
of blinds & antes before any action is taken)

GREEN Zone --- 20+ times the Pot
This is where you want to be as much as
possible. All playing styles and moves are
available to you. You are fully functional
and should be willing to take some risks
to stay here.

YELLOW Zone --- 10-20 times the Pot
As you go from green to yellow you lose
the ability to play tight conservative poker.
The blinds are starting to catch you and
you have to start making moves with
some weaker hands. Dont let yourself
be wittled away. Avoid getting into big
confrontations that can consume a big
chunk or your stack. Try to win some
small pots to atleast stay even with the
increasing blinds.

ORANGE Zone --- 6-10 times the Pot
You lose the ability to make complex moves
that require a large stack size to succeed.
Its time to get more aggressive. If you wait
too long for a monster hand, your stack may
be too small to be useful to you. In this zone
you need to conserve your chips for big moves
that can double you up. Look for opportunities
to be first in the pot to try and win it outright,
but get out if you encounter resistance.

RED Zone --- 1-5 times the Pot
You've lost any ability to make a bet other
than all in, and thats what your bets should
mostly be, all in pre-flop or fold. Even going
all in, your stack might not be big enough
to scare away other players after you've
made this move a number of times.
Hand selection should be liberal.
Any Pairs, Any two Face Cards, Suited
Connectors. Being first in the pot is
probably as important as your cards,
especially if several players fold in front
of you. You need to be very aggressive here
if you want to have any chance at coming
back and making it to the end of the tournament.
When you're toughing it out in the Red zone,
remember Harrington's 3-to-1 rule which
essentially says if your M = 3, you're first in
the pot, and you figure your opponents will
fold 50% of the time, put your chips in the middle.

There is one final zone called the

DEAD Zone --- Less than 1 times the pot
You should NEVER let yourself get to
this zone by folding and being blinded away.
In the Dead Zone, you appear to be alive but
you are not. You should have made your move
long before now (when doubling / tripling up will
make a real difference in the health of your
chip stack) You have only one move which is
all-in and players will call you just to get rid of
you and end your misery. You should pick any
2 cards with any kind of potential and be the
First In The Pot, dont wait for the big blind
to come around to you. Being first in is
more important than your cards. This will
cause some players to fold marginal hands
to your little all-in because they may fear
someone coming over the top with a big bet
behind them.

In the later stages of most of the Premier Tour
events in London, all players will be in
the Orange or Red Zones. Because of the fairly
small fields, the total chips in play might only
be 120,000... with an average stack of around
10,000 and with the blinds and antes at
300/1000/2000, most M's would be around 1- 4.

When Everyone is basically in the same
low M situation, those on the top end of the scale...
say an M of 4 or 5 should act like they're in the
Orange zone.

Those with M's of 1 or 2 are really and
truly in danger and need to follow the
Red Zone guidelines.

It is more important that you understand
the concept of M and the necessity of making
a move before your chips lose their power,
than it is to follow these zone guidelines exactly.